[Major Banks] Citi: E-commerce industry GMV for this year's Double 11 is expected to record low-to-mid single-digit year-on-year growth; maintains "Buy" ratings on Alibaba, JD.com, and PDD Holdings

ChinaSocial CommerceEcommerce GrowthDouble11Livestream Selling富途牛牛 · October 29, 2026 at 8:23 AM

Citi expects the e-commerce industry's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for this year's Double 11 shopping festival to record low-to-mid single-digit year-on-year growth. The forecast was made despite maintaining 'Buy' ratings on major e-commerce players such as Alibaba, JD.com, and PDD Holdings. This prediction indicates a potential slowdown in the growth of China's e-commerce market, which has been a significant driver of the country's digital economy.

The expected slowdown in GMV growth for Double 11 has implications for social commerce in China, as it may impact the sales and revenue of online retailers and influencers who rely heavily on this shopping festival. The slower growth could also lead to increased competition among e-commerce platforms, potentially driving innovation in areas like Zhíbò dàihuò / Livestream Selling and Zhòng cǎo / Seed Planting, as companies seek to differentiate themselves and attract more customers.

The Social Commerce Daily Digest

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